Here is a comprehensive summary of key developments in the global oil and gas industry over the past year.

Political and Market Dynamics

The return of US President Donald Trump significantly impacted global energy policy and markets. His administration issued executive orders affecting offshore drilling, LNG exports, Alaskan resources, and rolled back the Inflation Reduction Act. His tariff policies created prolonged economic uncertainty, particularly affecting oil markets. A notable consequence was the collapse of US energy exports to China, which exposed a strategic shortcoming as China's prior efforts had already fortified its energy security, leaving the US with little leverage.

Investment and Demand Shifts

Investor sentiment became closely tied to the growth of data centers and artificial intelligence. The emergence of Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek triggered a slump in shares of US natural gas producers. Analysts project that US data centers alone will account for roughly 14% of incremental gas demand from 2025 through 2030.

Regional Highlights and Deal-making

UK North Sea: Operators saw grounds for optimism due to a more pragmatic government approach, with an estimated £50 billion potentially investable over five years. However, the Energy Profits Levy continued to drive dealmaking and consolidation as companies threatened to exit the region.

Indonesia: The country experienced a revitalized investment climate under President Prabowo Subianto, attracting majors like Chevron and TotalEnergies. Improved terms, including a better production sharing split and flexible contract models, were cited as key drivers.

Brazil: Petrobras received a historic license to drill in the environmentally sensitive Foz de Amazonas basin, ending a costly chapter. The challenge will be to demonstrate that hydrocarbons can be extracted safely and cleanly in such areas.

Timor-Leste: After decades, it was confirmed that gas from the Greater Sunrise fields would be developed via a pipeline to Timor-Leste, rather than to existing facilities in Darwin, Australia.

Major Corporate Developments

BP's Strategic Uncertainty: BP posted its weakest quarterly results since the height of Covid, leading to talks of a need for "fundamental" change and sparking speculation about a potential megamerger with Shell. While Shell denied talks, analysts suggested BP remains a takeover target.

Chevron's Acquisition of Hess: Chevron prevailed in arbitration against ExxonMobil and CNOOC, securing its $53 billion takeover of Hess. The primary prize was Hess's 30% stake in the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek block offshore Guyana, a region with over 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent in recoverable resources.

Santos's Takeover Struggles: The Australian independent Santos faced its fourth failed takeover bid in a decade, this time from the Abu Dhabi-based XRG consortium. Despite operational improvements, the company was advised to tidy up its upstream and LNG businesses to remain an attractive M&A prospect.

Geopolitical and Security Issues

The Russia-Ukraine conflict continued, with energy infrastructure remaining a prime strategic target. A wave of attacks on key installations occurred just as European leaders were meeting with President Trump to explore peace avenues, underscoring the use of energy assets to impose costs ahead of any negotiations.

US Regulatory and Auction Activity

Beyond initial orders, the Trump administration's actions were wide-ranging, including nixing an LNG export ban, attacking offshore wind, curbing regulations, and cracking down on China's teapot refineries and the oil trades of Iran and Venezuela. The year concluded with the first US Gulf offshore lease sale in