Africa is projected to be the most active region globally for high-impact oil and gas exploration drilling in 2026. This leadership is driven by sustained industry interest in ultra-deepwater and frontier basins, with activity concentrated along the Atlantic margin, particularly in the Orange Basin offshore southern Africa and the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa.

Global Exploration Momentum and 2026 Outlook

Global high-impact wildcat drilling maintained strong momentum into 2025, with the discovery success rate rising to 38% from 23% the previous year. Total discovered volumes increased by 53% year-on-year to approximately 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe). For 2026, 42 high-impact exploration wells are planned worldwide, with Africa accounting for roughly 40% of this total, reinforcing its role as a key growth engine for global exploration.

Focus on Ultra-Deepwater and Frontier Plays

Ultra-deepwater prospects dominate the 2026 drilling outlook, representing about 60% of planned high-impact wells. The majority of these wells will target frontier regions, with a smaller share testing emerging plays or extending previously discovered basins with potential to become future production hubs. Major international oil companies are expected to lead the activity, followed by national oil companies and international NOCs.

Regional Activity Beyond Africa

Asia: The region is forecast to host eight high-impact wells, led by Indonesia with additional activity in India and Malaysia. While Asia has delivered around 18 billion boe in conventional discoveries over the past decade, recent volumes have been concentrated in a few mature offshore areas, limiting opportunities for large, play-opening finds.

North America: Exploration activity continues to lag, with discoveries largely confined to mature basins in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Limited access to new frontier acreage has constrained upside potential, leaving the region dependent on smaller, incremental additions rather than transformational discoveries.

Strategic Shift in Exploration Priorities

The analysis indicates that, despite higher capital intensity, operators are increasingly prioritizing frontier and ultra-deepwater exploration in regions like Africa. This strategic shift is motivated by the attractive geological potential and scale these areas offer within a tightening global supply environment.