In December, exports from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's (CPC) Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk declined by approximately a third, according to estimates from analytics firm Kpler. This disruption led to significant production cuts at two of Kazakhstan's largest oilfields.

Cause of the Disruption

The reduction was caused by a combination of a Ukrainian drone strike and adverse weather. The late November drone strike disabled one of the terminal's three Single Point Mooring (SPM) loading buoys. Scheduled maintenance on another SPM was then hampered by poor seasonal weather, leaving only one SPM operational throughout December. These offshore SPMs are crucial as they allow for faster loading and safer operations in rough seas compared to fixed port moorings.

Impact on Production and Exports

The loading disruption resulted in estimated combined production cuts of 150,000 to 200,000 barrels per day at the giant Tengiz and Kashagan oilfields, which ship almost all their output to Europe via the CPC pipeline. Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi stated that loadings via the pipeline dropped to an estimated 1 million barrels per day in December, down from a September-November average of 1.47 million bpd. Following the attack, the CPC diverted oil into storage tanks with over 8 million barrels of capacity, but by late December, these tanks reached capacity due to weather-hampered loadings, forcing the consortium to stop accepting more crude from Kazakh producers.

Ongoing Challenges and Alternative Routes

Operations continued to be disrupted in early January by severe weather, and the maintenance on the third SPM remained incomplete. With CPC restrictions, Kazakh field operators increased shipments by almost a quarter in December to 255,500 bpd via the alternative Atyrau–Samara pipeline connection, which links to the Russian network for onward export.

Broader Production Context

Kazakhstan's oil production had been growing, with Tengiz being the main contributor to a 14% year-on-year increase in the first 11 months of 2025. Government officials have anticipated a major production boost in 2025 following a massive capacity upgrade project at Tengiz. The operators of Tengiz and Kashagan, as well as the Kazakh Ministry of Energy and the CPC, did not provide specific comments on the production details related to the December disruption.