The U.S. Energy Information Administration's December Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that global crude oil production will increase by approximately 800,000 barrels per day in 2026. Roughly half of this growth is projected to come from three non-OPEC producers: Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina.

Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth Context

Since 2023, crude supply growth has been led largely by producers outside the OPEC+ group. While OPEC+ production cuts offset non-OPEC gains in 2024, global output rebounded in 2025, rising an estimated 2.2 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC producers contributed about 1.7 million barrels per day of that increase, with Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina responsible for roughly 28% of the total global growth.

Brazil's Production Surge

Brazil's crude oil output surged in 2025 following the start-up of new Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading (FPSO) vessels in deepwater developments. Production exceeded 4.0 million barrels per day for the first time in October 2025, supported by the start-up of Equinor’s Bacalhau field and other capacity additions. The EIA forecasts Brazilian crude production will average about 4.0 million barrels per day in 2026, supported by two additional FPSOs scheduled to come online at Petrobras’ Buzios field.

Guyana's Rapid Expansion

Guyana continues to post one of the fastest oil production growth rates globally, with output rising nearly tenfold since 2020. Production averaged an estimated 750,000 barrels per day in 2025, driven by developments in the Stabroek Block operated by ExxonMobil alongside partners Hess and CNOOC. ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail project reached full capacity in late 2025, pushing Guyana’s production above 900,000 barrels per day in November. The start-up of the Uaru project in 2026 is expected to add 250,000 barrels per day, helping Guyana surpass 1.0 million barrels per day by 2027.

Argentina's Shale-Driven Growth

In Argentina, crude production growth is being driven by the Vaca Muerta shale play, one of the few unconventional oil basins outside the U.S. producing at scale. Argentine output is forecast to rise from about 740,000 barrels per day in 2025 to roughly 810,000 barrels per day in 2026, with Vaca Muerta accounting for more than 60% of national production.

Conclusion

The combined growth from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina will remain a key factor shaping global supply balances as non-OPEC production continues to expand into 2026.