Canadian Natural Resources (CNR) has released its 2026 outlook, forecasting a capital expenditure of C$6.3 billion (US$4.6 billion) and a targeted production increase.

Production Targets

The company expects total production to rise by approximately 3% in 2026, targeting a range of 1.59 million to 1.65 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). The midpoint of this range represents a 50,000 boepd increase from 2025 projections. Liquids are expected to constitute about 74% of the total output, with a specific target of 1.18 million to 1.22 million barrels per day, marking a 5% increase from 2025. Natural gas production is projected to remain flat, ranging between 2.48 billion and 2.58 billion cubic feet per day.

Capital Expenditure Breakdown

The C$6.3 billion capital budget is allocated across several areas. Approximately C$3.32 billion is designated for conventional exploration and production. Another C$2.98 billion is earmarked for thermal and oil sands mining operations. The budget also includes C$175 million for front-end engineering and design (FEED) capital dedicated to "value creation opportunities," and $125 million is set aside for carbon capture projects.

Drilling and Development Plans

CNR plans to drill 448 net wells across its oil and gas assets in 2026. This total comprises:

• 110 light crude wells in the Mannville, Montney, Charlie Lake, and Dunvegan formations.
• 86 liquids-rich natural gas wells, primarily in the Duvernay and Montney formations.
• 252 heavy crude wells in the Pelican Lake and Driftwood areas.

Specific Value Creation Projects

The FEED capital is intended for specific expansion opportunities. These include a brownfield expansion at the Jackfish asset, estimated to cost between C$650 million and C$750 million and projected to produce 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) of bitumen. The other is a greenfield expansion at the Pike asset, known as Pike 2, which would cost over C$2.8 billion and add 70,000 bpd of bitumen production.

Analyst Perspective

According to analyst group TD Cowen, CNR's 2026 capital outlook and production estimates are "right in line" with consensus projections and the company's previous disclosures at a November investor day.