Two major Canadian oil producers, Cenovus Energy and Suncor Energy, have released their 2026 production and capital expenditure forecasts, outlining significant growth plans.

Cenovus Energy 2026 Outlook

Cenovus expects its total upstream production to range between 945,000 and 985,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2026. This represents growth, partly attributable to its recent acquisition of MEG Energy. The forecast includes 755,000 to 780,000 barrels per day from its oil sands segment. This 2026 range is higher than its pre-acquisition 2025 forecast of 805,000 to 845,000 boepd, though the 2025 range was later adjusted to 805,000 to 825,000 boepd due to an outage. A regulatory-approved ramp-up at the Rush Lake facility is expected to add 8,000 bpd in 2026. For the fourth quarter of 2025, production is anticipated to be between 910,000 and 920,000 boepd.

The company cites several projects supporting this growth, including a completed project at Foster Creek, the West White Rose offshore development (targeting first oil in Q2 2026), and the Christina Lake North expansion acquired via MEG. Analysts noted the 2026 production forecast is broadly in line with industry expectations.

Cenovus plans capital expenditures of C$5 billion to C$5.3 billion for 2026, with the floor being C$400 million higher than its 2025 minimum projection. The spending breakdown includes:

• C$4.4 billion to C$4.6 billion for upstream efforts, targeting projects like Christina Lake North, Sunrise development, and evaluating solvent recovery in Lloydminster.
• C$600 million to C$700 million for refining operations, which are expected to process 430,000 to 450,000 bpd of crude.

This spending plan was noted as being relatively close to analyst projections.

Suncor Energy 2026 Outlook

Suncor forecasts its full-year crude output will reach 840,000 to 870,000 barrels per day in 2026. This represents a 100,000 bpd increase from its 2023 output and exceeds a target previously set in 2024. Of this total, 785,000 to 810,000 bpd is expected to come from its oil sands assets. The company averaged a record 870,000 bpd in the third quarter of 2025.

Suncor's planned capital expenditures for 2026 range from C$5.6 billion to C$5.8 billion. The allocation includes:

• C$3.85 billion to C$3.9 billion for oil sands operations.
• C$1.3 billion to C$1.38 billion for downstream efforts.

Major investments noted for 2026 include in situ well pads, Mildred Lake East, West White Rose, Fort Hills North Pit development, and the Petro-Canada retail network optimization plan. Additionally, the company is planning C$3.3 billion in share repurchases for the year.