Chevron expects to be close to its 2026 full-year production target at Kazakhstan's Tengiz field, despite a significant production halt in January. The halt was caused by fires at the field's main power plant on January 18, which led operator Tengizchevroil (TCO) to declare force majeure. Production resumed at a low rate on January 26, but the week-long shutdown resulted in an estimated loss of 7.2 million barrels of oil.

Recovery and Mitigation Plans

Chevron's CEO stated that the majority of Tengiz's capacity will be online within the first week of February, with full, unconstrained production returning later in the month. To recoup the lost output and stay near annual targets, the company is implementing a two-part strategy. First, it will optimize the timing and reduce the downtime of planned maintenance at the field's processing plants. Second, it will work to debottleneck the field's new $47 billion facilities, which were commissioned last year to boost capacity. The company aims to gradually increase throughput beyond the nameplate capacity of these facilities.

Financial and Production Context

Chevron's 2026 financial guidance for its share of free cash flow from Tengiz remains unchanged. With a 50% stake, Chevron is entitled to half of the field's total production, which is targeted to reach about 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). The recent Tengiz disruption compounded broader export issues affecting Kazakhstan's key oil projects. Due to problems at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) export terminal, the Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak fields collectively forfeited over 30 million barrels of production in December and January. The CPC issues were triggered by a Ukrainian drone attack on one loading buoy in November and scheduled maintenance on another, severely restricting loadings. One of the buoys has since returned to operation.