The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) recommendations mark the first official use of the term "energy superpower" by the Chinese government. This ambition presents a critical juncture for the nation's major energy producers, requiring them to balance maintaining stable hydrocarbon production for energy security with pursuing green development to meet the 2030 carbon emissions peak target. The plan positions a green transition as central to China's energy strategy, describing it as a defining feature of Chinese modernization, with the goal of shaping a new clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system.

Strategic Shift and Interpretation

The plan represents a shift from the 14th Five-Year Plan's focus on structural indicators like capacity expansion. The 15th Plan emphasizes building comprehensive energy system capabilities, with the policy balance tilting toward "security first, steady transition." This involves moving beyond simply expanding renewable capacity to enhancing grid stability and flexibility. The "energy superpower" goal is interpreted as building a "green energy superpower," acknowledging China's existing massive energy scale while charting a path for its evolution during the critical period when emissions are expected to peak.

Transformation Path for National Oil Companies

China's three major national oil companies (CNPC, Sinopec, CNOOC) are expected to gradually shift from traditional resource-based enterprises to integrated energy supply and systems operators. Their overall transformation is summarized in five directions:

• Stable oil and gas production and supply.
• Natural gas expansion, treated as a vital bridge fuel.
• Low-carbon energy layout (e.g., hydrogen, CCUS, new materials).
• Technology-driven upgrading to cultivate second growth curves.
• Integrated energy service expansion.

This involves increasing hydrocarbon reserves and production, developing unconventional resources, and accelerating entry into wind power, photovoltaics, and power operations to form a diversified energy supply system. Gas investment is anticipated to outpace oil spending, and companies are expected to introduce more renewables into their upstream activities.

Corporate Strategies for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

The companies outlined their aligned strategies at their annual work conferences.

CNPC

CNPC will accelerate building a modern energy system aligned with green development. By 2030, it aims to upgrade its industrial system while ensuring secure supply. The company will target high-level scientific and technological self-reliance, enhance energy supply capabilities across all subsidiaries, and deepen market-led operations with a focus on value creation.

CNOOC

CNOOC's strategic priority is cultivating "new quality productive forces" in offshore energy. Key 2026 actions include increasing oil and gas reserves and production, expanding investments, applying AI, pursuing integrated hydrocarbon-new energy development, and strengthening overseas project emergency response. The company has set annual net production targets (e.g., 780-800 million boe for 2026) and remains committed to discovering large-to-medium fields, a strategy of "stabilising oil production and increasing gas production," and accelerating its "digital-intelligent" transformation.

Sinopec

Sinopec's central theme is driving high-quality development through its "second venture," expanding into new growth drivers like renewable energy. The pathway involves transforming traditional industries (the "first curve") while expanding into emerging industries (the "second curve"). The company is committed to expanding energy resources beyond traditional oil and gas, leading in shale development, enhancing overseas operations and domestic joint-ventures to build a "dual circulation" strategic hub. Focus areas for 2026 include increasing domestic exploration and overseas production, upgrading equipment, and promoting green development.