The African LNG export sector has seen a divergence in progress since 2018, with floating LNG (FLNG) projects advancing more successfully than onshore developments, which have faced widespread delays.

Onshore Project Delays and Challenges

Most onshore greenfield and brownfield projects have struggled to gain traction. The COVID-19 pandemic, an anti-fossil fuel sentiment, and an oil price crash created financing challenges, leading governments and companies to delay investment decisions. Country-specific issues have also been significant. In Mozambique, the Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG projects were delayed by insurgent attacks near the Afungi construction site; although force majeure was lifted in late 2025, security remains a concern. In Tanzania, the LNG project is stalled amid political turmoil following a disputed election. In Ethiopia, a project to pipe gas from the Ogaden basin collapsed in 2022 after the government lost patience with the developer. Nigeria's NLNG Train 7 expansion is behind schedule, with start-up now expected in 2026 due to gas supply, financing, and COVID-related issues, though future Trains 8 and 9 are being considered.

FLNG Projects Forging Ahead

In contrast, FLNG projects are progressing. Eni's Coral South in Mozambique and BP's Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) on the Senegal-Mauritania border are in production. Eni took FID on Coral North in 2025 and brought the Nguya FLNG vessel online in Congo-Brazzaville, part of the Congo LNG project. In Nigeria, UTM Offshore is advancing its Yoho FLNG project, targeting FID in 2026, and Ace Gas & FLNG has selected a contractor for design work. However, some potential FLNG schemes, like those at Senegal's Yakaar-Teranga and Mauritania's BirAllah discoveries, have stalled due to domestic market priorities or lapsed licenses.

Capacity Outlook and Future Projects

Africa's current LNG export capacity is just under 80 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). The International Gas Union reports that if all delayed and proposed projects materialize, capacity could exceed 123 mtpa by 2030. Recent additions include Coral South (3.4 mtpa), GTA (2.5 mtpa), and Tango FLNG (0.6 mtpa). Near-term additions will come from Cap Lopez in Gabon (0.7 mtpa in 2026) and Nguya (2.4 mtpa in 2026). The largest potential capacity increases by 2030 depend on delayed onshore schemes: NLNG Train 7 (8 mtpa), Mozambique LNG (13 mtpa), and Rovuma LNG (18 mtpa). GTA has expansion plans that could quadruple capacity. Coral North FLNG (3.4 mtpa) is slated for 2028, and UTM's Nigerian project (2.14 mtpa) for 2030. Tanzania LNG (15 mtpa) is unlikely by 2030 unless a deal is struck soon. Future opportunities beyond 2030 exist in Nigeria and Namibia, while expansion possibilities remain for existing plants in Equatorial Guinea and Angola.

Historical Context in North Africa

North Africa historically led the continent's LNG sector, with Algeria developing large facilities at Arzew and Skikda from the 1960s to 1980s, and Libya adding a plant in 1970. Egypt's onshore plants at Idku and Damietta operate near capacity only when domestic demand does not require the gas.