Enverus Intelligence reports that while indicators point to a gradual recovery in global oil and gas exploration from historic lows, the pace may be insufficient to prevent a potential supply gap after 2030. This revival is considered fragile and nuanced.

Current State and Leading Indicators

Global exploration and appraisal drilling activity in 2025 remained near historic lows. However, positive long-lead indicators include the highest level of awarded acreage since 2022, growth in seismic surveys, and new country entries. Sub-Saharan Africa saw the largest growth in awarded acreage in 2025, largely through direct negotiations outside of formal bid rounds. Looking to 2026, hybrid licensing models that combine open-door flexibility with tender transparency are expected to gain traction.

Fragile Recovery and Supply Risks

The current uptick in offshore exploration drilling is fragile because it is primarily driven by supermajors and national oil companies (NOCs), with insufficient broader investment. Years of under-exploration risk creating a material oil supply gap post-2030. Despite low activity levels, exploration success rates have held steady at 30-40% due to high-grading prospects and disciplined, risk-weighted strategies.

Key Regions and Shifting Dynamics

Recent discovery hotspots include West Africa, East Asia, northern Latin America, and the East Mediterranean, which are expected to remain key into 2026. A significant trend is that independents and junior companies are set to drive a larger portion of near-term exploration drilling momentum, marking a shift from the historical dominance of supermajors and NOCs. Examples include Murphy Oil in Ivory Coast and OMV Petrom in Bulgaria. Nevertheless, supermajors and NOCs continue to invest heavily in new acreage to rebuild inventories and still undertake the bulk of high-impact exploration.

Drivers for Broader Activity

Opening new plays, such as the Orange basin offshore Namibia, which can become hubs for development and M&A, is cited as a key driver for industry-wide activity. The Asia-Pacific region, particularly Malaysia and Indonesia, is experiencing a revival, with activity levels not seen since the 2015 downturn. Some of this activity is "carbon-led exploration," where companies are evaluating carbon storage opportunities alongside hydrocarbon potential.

Farm-Out Market and 2026 Outlook

The number of available farm-out opportunities is surprisingly low, having plunged from a peak of about 1,450 in 2019 to 336 in 2025, partly due to consolidation in hotspots like the Orange basin. For 2026, offshore exploration is expected to be comparatively busy in South America, Africa, the East Mediterranean, and the Black Sea. A notable wildcat well is planned offshore Peru by Occidental, which has Pacific margin play-opening potential.

Upcoming Industry Event

The slow revival of exploration will be a major theme at the Prospex 2026 event in London. The agenda includes discussions on whether farm-out and M&A markets will rebound, and forums on the financial and legal aspects of farmouts and commercializing gas discoveries.