On Saturday, US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social website that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was dead following US and Israeli strikes, calling him "one of the most evil people in History." This claim was subsequently followed by confirmations from multiple Iranian state media outlets.

Iranian State Media Confirmations and Aftermath

The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) confirmed on Sunday that Ayatollah Khamenei was killed following an attack by Israel and the US. Iran's state broadcaster, IRIB, also confirmed the death. According to the semi-official Mehr News Agency, Iranian Defence Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Seyed Abdolrahim Mousavi were also killed in the attacks. IRNA reported that Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, announced the formation of an Interim Leadership Council to manage the transition.

Retaliatory Attacks and Warnings

In response, Iran launched a sweeping retaliatory attack on Sunday, firing missiles and drones at targets in Israel, US military bases in the region, and key airports including Dubai. President Trump warned Iran against further escalation, stating that if Iran stepped up its attacks, the US would respond with unprecedented force.

Earlier Reports and Contradictions

Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, had earlier suggested Khamenei was likely dead after the strikes, with Netanyahu citing "many signs that this tyrant is no longer." Trump also told NBC News on Saturday that his administration believed reports of Khamenei's death. However, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, had earlier denied reports that Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian had been killed, telling ABC News they were "safe and sound." The White House did not respond to a request for comment on Khamenei's status or the potential impact of the strikes on global oil prices.

Impact on Global Energy Markets

The conflict has significant implications for global energy markets and security. Rystad Energy warned that upheaval in Iran could cause Brent crude oil prices to rise by $10 to $20 per barrel when trading resumes, despite OPEC+ considering an output increase. According to Kpler, vessels carrying oil and liquefied natural gas have been unable to pass through the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz. While vessel traffic has not universally stopped, Poten and Partners noted that risk-related disruptions are building rapidly. Oil prices, already in the low $70-per-barrel range before the strikes, could surge further if the conflict escalates, especially if energy infrastructure or shipping becomes a target and tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz are materially slowed or blocked. Additionally, reports emerged that Israel shut down production at the offshore Leviathan gas field, operated by Chevron, as a precaution following Iran's retaliatory strikes.