Overnight drone attacks targeted four Greek-managed oil tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. The tankers—Delta Harmony, Matilda, Freud, and Delta Supreme—were scheduled to load oil from Kazakhstan's major Western-led developments. Industry sources confirmed these vessels have historically carried Kazakh oil and are not part of Russia's shadow fleet used to circumvent sanctions.

Impact on Kazakh Oil Exports and Production

The CPC terminal is the dedicated export route for crude from Kazakhstan's three key projects: Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan, which involve Western majors like Chevron, Eni, and Shell. The attack on the Matilda, chartered by Kazakh state company KazMunayGaz's subsidiary, was specifically acknowledged, with loading scheduled for January 18. The Kazakh Energy Ministry also confirmed the Delta Harmony was attacked.

These incidents compound existing severe operational constraints at the CPC terminal. Since a late November attack claimed by Ukraine incapacitated one of the terminal's three offshore loading buoys, and with a third buoy under prolonged maintenance, the consortium has been limited to using just one buoy. This single buoy is insufficient for normal operations, which require at least two to handle the typical export rate of over 1.5 million barrels per day.

The bottleneck has caused a dramatic drop in Kazakh oil production. With CPC storage full in December and bad weather further disrupting loadings in early January, output from the Karachaganak, Tengiz, and Kashagan projects fell by an estimated 44%, 51%, and 60%, respectively, in the first 12 days of January compared to December averages. Nationwide, Kazakhstan's oil production reportedly fell to 1.21 million barrels per day in January from 1.87 million in December.

Uncertainty and Official Responses

The origin of the drones used in the latest attacks has not been identified, and Ukrainian military authorities had not confirmed involvement. In response to the disruptions, the operator of the Tengiz field stated it was aware of the incidents but claimed they had no impact on its operations, declining to comment on specific production levels. Comments were sought from other relevant Kazakh operators and ministries.