In December, Kazakhstan diverted over 73,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to alternative export routes. This diversion, equivalent to about 6% of the volume normally shipped via its primary conduit, was a response to disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk on the Russian Black Sea coast. A Ukrainian drone attack in November disabled one of the terminal's three offshore loading buoys, and with another undergoing maintenance, operations were limited to a single buoy throughout December.

Impact on Primary Export Route

The Caspian Pipeline typically handles over 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports, transporting about 1.34 million bpd out of the country's average 1.67 million bpd exports from January to November. Following the terminal damage, analytics suggested shipments from the terminal fell by approximately 500,000 bpd to around 1 million bpd in December. The pipeline operator has not confirmed the extent of the disruption.

Alternative Routes Utilized

State company KazMunayGaz detailed the rerouted volumes. The majority was sent via the Atyrau-Samara pipeline connector into Russia's network for onward transport to Germany and Russian export ports. Additional exports were shipped by tanker across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, where the oil entered the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline for export from Turkey. Further volumes were transported via the pipeline linking Kazakhstan to China.

Future Export Plans

KazMunayGaz outlined plans for increased oil supplies via these alternative routes by 2026. Exports to Germany via Russia, Belarus, and Poland are projected to rise 19% to 52,000 bpd, while shipments via the BTC pipeline are expected to grow 23% to about 33,300 bpd. The most significant planned increase is for pipeline exports to China, which are set to grow by 82% to nearly 42,000 bpd.

Production Declines

Despite the increased use of alternative routes, reports indicate a major decline in Kazakh oil production, particularly at the key western-led developments: Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. Compared to December averages, production at these three fields was estimated to have dropped by 44%, 51%, and 60%, respectively, in the first 12 days of January. Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry has not released official production data for December or January, and the operators of the fields have either declined to comment or stated that such information is confidential.