Iran has initiated retaliatory strikes targeting Middle East oil and gas infrastructure in response to an Israeli attack on its South Pars gas field. These actions have included a drone attack on the Kuwait Petroleum Company's Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery, which caused a small fire but no injuries, and multiple missile strikes confirmed by QatarEnergy against its liquefied natural gas (LNG) installations, resulting in extensive damage.

Market Impact and Outlook

The attacks have triggered a surge in global crude and gas markets. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie indicates that the extended outage risks from this damage are expected to tighten global supply, raise prices, and delay capacity growth through 2028. Market expectations for a short disruption and a return to pre-conflict supply levels by mid-2026 are now seen as increasingly unlikely. A more prolonged outage would further tighten global supply and keep prices elevated for a longer period.