Despite the International Energy Agency's plan to release 400 million barrels of emergency crude, analysts note that global energy shocks from the US-Iran war will likely persist until safe tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is restored. Oil prices remained elevated, with Brent and WTI futures up 5%, indicating that supply moves alone are insufficient. JPMorgan analyst Natasha Kaneva emphasized that policy measures will have limited impact on prices unless safe passage through the strait is assured, as potential supply losses could reach 12 million barrels per day within two weeks. The IEA's combined release rate of 1.2 million barrels per day would not offset these losses. Furthermore, US releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are likely to be below 2022 levels due to lower inventories, and there are significant execution lags of about 13 days for deliveries to begin after a presidential order.

US Military and Insurance Measures

US President Donald Trump has vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz safe, offering US Navy escorts for vessels and announcing that the US Development Finance Corporation will provide political risk insurance for tankers in the Persian Gulf at a "very reasonable price." Initial market reactions to a claim of a successful naval escort were reversed when the White House clarified that no escorts had yet occurred. The US Central Command claimed to have destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels. Analysts suggest that disrupting Iran's naval capabilities, combined with escorts and insurance, could restore commercial confidence, but note that escorting every tanker would require significant naval resources and allied coordination, which are currently limited.

Rising Risks and Insurance Complexities

War risk insurance premiums for tankers in the Middle East are surging, according to UNCTAD. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported 17 incidents in the region, including 13 attacks. The DFC provided additional details, stating its reinsurance would cover losses up to roughly $20 billion on a rolling basis, but only for vessels meeting unspecified criteria. Maritime law expert Sean Pribyl highlighted the lack of specifics from the US as a problem, raising questions about the insurance's availability to vessels from sanctioned jurisdictions and how a "very reasonable price" would be determined in a market where such coverage is typically extremely expensive. He noted that vessel owners would likely need to seek answers directly from the DFC.

Operational and Human Safety Concerns

Vessel operators face a sobering decision on whether to transit the strait. Pribyl pointed out that insurance would likely cover only ship costs, not the safety of crew or potential environmental damage from an attack. The fundamental issue remains safety for civilian crews on commercial vessels. The reluctance to send ships stems from the real and present danger, making the decision to transit a serious risk to human life.