Kazakhstan has faced significant disruptions to its oil production and export infrastructure over a recent three-month period, primarily centered on two major events: a power outage at the giant Tengiz field and a drone attack on a key export terminal.

Tengiz Field Production Recovery

Oil and gas production at the Tengiz field is nearing a full return to its nameplate capacity following a complete shutdown in January. This shutdown was caused by two transformer fires at the field's newest gas-fired power generation facility on January 18, which halted all output from Tengiz and its smaller satellite field, Korolyov. The operator, Tengizchevroil, has since restored output close to capacity, with final adjustments underway to bring back the remaining 80,000 barrels per day of spare capacity. Production had been restarted at the Korolyov field on January 26 and at Tengiz several days later after repairs to the power plant were completed. The incident had prompted Tengizchevroil to declare force majeure for its oil exports.

Export Constraints via the Caspian Pipeline

A separate and earlier crisis for exports occurred due to a Ukrainian drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's (CPC) export terminal near Novorossiysk at the end of November. This attack, compounded by bad weather in December, severely restricted the shipping capacity for Kazakh oil. These capacity restrictions, in place during December, prevented the production of an estimated 3.5 million tonnes (28 million barrels) of oil from the country's three largest fields: Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. The energy minister has stated that these shipping capacity restrictions on the CPC are no longer affecting these major fields.

Impact on Production and Export Figures

The combined effect of these disruptions is reflected in production data. Kazakhstan's total oil production for 2025 was 99.55 million tonnes (2.07 million barrels per day), falling short of the 100 million tonne target set after Tengiz's expansion. The CPC shipped 1.54 million bpd of Kazakh oil in 2025, with 800,000 bpd coming from Tengiz. For context, Kazakhstan produced 1.83 million bpd in 2024, with Tengiz exports via the CPC at 586,000 bpd. The immediate impact of the January Tengiz shutdown was severe; combined output from the three major fields fell 47% to 694,000 bpd in January from 1.31 million bpd in December. The minister did not disclose the shutdown's impact on total national production figures for January and February.

Other Production and Export Notes

The December CPC restrictions did not impact production at the state-run KazMunayGaz (KMG). KMG reported that production at its directly operated assets remained flat year-on-year at about 287,000 bpd in 2025. KMG exports oil from fields like Ozen via pipeline across Russia and maritime routes across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and Russia.