The European Union set a new record for liquefied natural gas imports in 2025, reaching 145 billion cubic metres, as it increasingly relied on seaborne gas to compensate for reduced pipeline supplies. The United States solidified its position as the EU's primary LNG supplier, accounting for over half of the volumes and increasing its exports to the region by nearly 60% year-on-year.

Drivers of Increased LNG Demand

Several factors converged to heighten EU demand for LNG in 2025. A key driver was the loss of pipeline gas, including the lapse of the Russia-Ukraine transit agreement in December 2024, which removed approximately 15 Bcm of annual supply. Supplies via Norwegian pipelines were also lower. Furthermore, EU gas inventory levels were at 34% of capacity at the end of March, significantly below the 58% level seen at the same time in 2024, marking a weaker starting point for the replenishment season.

Risks of Supplier Dependency and Market Volatility

Industry sources warn of significant risks associated with this shift. The EU has effectively swapped a previous dependence on Russian pipeline gas for a new, heavy reliance on US seaborne LNG. This creates a "double whammy": a strong dependency on a single supplier whose policies, under the Trump administration, have included threats of tariffs and trade wars, introducing geopolitical uncertainty. Additionally, replacing pipeline gas with globally traded LNG subjects Europe to more dominant market forces, where cargoes can be quickly diverted to other regions like Asia, increasing price volatility and reducing supply predictability.

Evolution of EU Gas Imports and Future Outlook

The surge in EU LNG imports began after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent cut-off of Russian pipeline flows, which had supplied 150 Bcm in 2021. Imports rose to nearly 130 Bcm in 2022 and 135 Bcm in 2023, dipped to around 110 Bcm in 2024 due to lower industrial demand and increased renewables capacity, then climbed to the 2025 record. The volume of Russian LNG in the import mix remained steady at just under 20 Bcm. Looking ahead, analysts expect high LNG import volumes in 2026 due to lower storage levels and EU regulations phasing out Russian pipeline gas, with a planned full phase-out of Russian LNG by the end of 2027.