Russia's natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production declined in 2025. According to Rosstat, natural gas production fell by over 3% to 561 billion cubic metres, while LNG output dropped by almost 4% to 32.9 million tonnes.

Primary Cause of Gas Production Decline

The decline in natural gas production is primarily attributed to the loss of a key export route. At the start of 2025, Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas to Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, and Moldova, stopping flows that amounted to about 14 billion cubic metres (Bcm) in 2024. With only the TurkStream pipeline to Southern Europe remaining, Gazprom was unable to divert this gas to other export destinations. The figures also reflect a lack of new pipeline capacity to ship gas from fields in West Siberia and the Yamal Peninsula to alternative markets like Central Asia.

Domestic Demand and Export Constraints

Domestic gas demand remained unchanged year-on-year at 522 Bcm, underpinned by growth of over 5% in fertiliser production. However, demand from metallurgical production declined. Despite record exports to China via the Sila Sibiri 1 pipeline, this network only handles gas from specific East Siberian fields (Chayanda and Kovykta), which are not connected to the national grid and cannot receive gas from the main production regions in West Siberia and Yamal.

LNG Production and Market Dynamics

The decline in LNG production occurred despite the start of stable summer supplies from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project to a dedicated terminal in China. Other major facilities are the Yamal LNG and Sakhalin 2 projects. A reported preliminary deal between Novatek and Gazprom would supply LNG from Arctic LNG 2 to the Kamchatka Peninsula, freeing up Gazprom's LNG from the unsanctioned Sakhalin 2 project for export to customers in Japan and elsewhere in Asia. However, analysts suggest production from Yamal LNG could decline in 2026 and 2027 due to Europe's move toward a full ban on Russian energy imports.