As winter conditions intensify, Russia's 'shadow fleet' of LNG carriers is adapting its logistics strategy for transporting gas from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project. The buildup of sea ice in the eastern section of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has effectively closed this passage for all but the specialized, ice-breaking Arc7 LNG fleet. This seasonal shift is forcing a change in export patterns.

Winter Transshipment Strategy

Observers indicate that Russia will now direct cargoes from the Arctic LNG 2 plant westward. A key development is the arrival of the Arc4 LNG carrier Buran at the Saam floating storage unit (FSU) located in Ura-Guba, northwest of Murmansk. This is seen as a sign that Novatek, the plant's operator, will use the Saam FSU for transshipment, a method it employed with the Koryak FSU in the east during the summer. At the FSU, LNG can be reloaded from ice-class vessels onto standard, non-ice-class vessels for onward shipment to international markets.

Ship Movements and Cargo Destinations

Specific vessel movements support this strategy. The Arctic Metagaz was identified as a potential candidate to load at the Saam FSU after arriving in ballast nearby. Data also shows a significant volume of cargo has already reached China, with about 16 shipments from the Arctic LNG plant delivered to the Beihai LNG terminal since August.

Resumption of Red Sea Route

Concurrently, Novatek has resumed using the Red Sea and Suez Canal route for its sanctioned carriers, a passage largely avoided by the LNG sector due to Houthi militant attacks on merchant shipping that began in early 2024. This resumption follows a Houthi declaration to halt attacks contingent on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Current ship tracking illustrates this shift: the sanctioned carrier Zarya is moving southbound through the Suez Canal with an Arctic LNG 2 cargo, while another sanctioned carrier, La Perouse, traveled northbound in ballast through the same route after discharging in China, having taken the longer Cape of Good Hope route on its outbound voyage.