Following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory action, vessel traffic in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz is experiencing significant disruption and confusion. The strait is a critical global energy chokepoint, handling over 25% of the world's seaborne oil—approximately 2 million barrels daily—and about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments.

Reports of Strait Closure and Disruption

Ships in the waterway have reportedly received messages from Iran's Revolutionary Guards stating that "no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz." The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed multiple reports from vessel security officers regarding VHF Channel 16 broadcasts claiming the strait's closure. While the strait remained physically open at the time of reporting, maritime traffic was disrupted, with indications that inbound ship movements were paused while outbound traffic continued.

Industry Response and Suspended Shipments

In response to the heightened risk, some shipowners and oil majors have taken independent action to avoid the area. Japanese shipowner NYK instructed its fleet not to navigate the Hormuz, and Reuters reported that several oil majors and traders have suspended shipments of oil, fuel, and LNG via the strait. Data from Kpler indicated that 11 ballast LNG tankers showed signs of slowing, U-turning, or stopping in the vicinity.

Heightened Security Risks and Advisory

Maritime security specialists warn of a significant escalation in regional hostilities, leading to an elevated risk of Revolutionary Guards fast craft activity, drones, and misidentification incidents involving naval and commercial vessels. While no confirmed impacts on commercial shipping or infrastructure were reported at the time, the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters has increased substantially. Vessels are advised to exercise extreme caution, maintain enhanced watchkeeping, and steer clear of military activity.

Iran's Capabilities and Broader Context

The conflict poses a direct threat to the strait. Iran's main oil export terminal on Kharg Island was reportedly bombed. Analysts suggest Iran could disrupt shipping using small, fast patrol boats, drones, or GPS jamming, a capability it recently demonstrated by closing part of the strait during a military drill interpreted as a potential dry run for conflict scenarios.