Based on the latest research from Rystad Energy, global high-impact exploration drilling is expected to remain strong in 2026, with Africa continuing to lead this activity.

Africa's Dominant Role in 2026 Exploration

Africa is forecast to account for approximately 40% of the world's planned high-impact exploration wells in 2026. The bulk of this drilling, similar to 2025, will be concentrated on the continent's Atlantic margin, particularly in the Orange Basin and the Gulf of Guinea. Additional key wildcats are planned offshore North and East Africa, alongside some onshore probes. Notably, all onshore high-impact drilling globally in 2026 is expected to occur in Africa, with one exception in Greenland. The continent's appeal is attributed to its combination of significant geological potential and the prospect of large, commercially meaningful discoveries, which is crucial for operators seeking long-life resources.

Global Exploration Trends and Focus

Globally, 42 high-impact wells have been identified for 2026. The industry's focus is sharply on ultra-deepwater and frontier wells, which are set to constitute about 60% of all high-impact drilling. Most wells will target frontier regions, with a smaller percentage focusing on basins with previous discoveries or testing entirely new plays. This trend follows a solid 2025, where the high-impact well success rate increased to 38% from 23% the previous year, and total discovered volumes grew by 53% year-on-year to around 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Asia's Exploration Landscape

Outside Africa, Asia will be a significant region with eight high-impact wells planned for 2026: four in Indonesia and two each in India and Malaysia. These countries awarded most of the region's new offshore exploration acreage between 2021 and 2025. The onshore scene in Asia is fragmented, with recent licence awards in Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and China. Operators like ONGC, Petronas, Oil India, Mari Petroleum, and Petro Matad have secured the largest acreage positions, positioning them to lead future activity. Over the past decade, Asia recorded about 18 billion boe of conventional discoveries, predominantly gas, but volumes have been highly concentrated in China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Opportunities are increasingly clustered in established areas, and 2025 was the weakest year for new volume additions in a decade, with discoveries around 1 billion boe, dominated by oil from offshore finds in Malaysia and Vietnam.

North America's Declining Performance

Exploration performance in North America has weakened since 2022, with yearly discovered volumes falling below the previous decade-low. Discoveries in Canada and Mexico have largely stalled, leaving the US Gulf of Mexico as the primary source of new volumes. These finds remain oil-weighted and concentrated in mature, heavily explored basins. In 2025, total discoveries on the continent fell to about 238 million barrels. This continued reliance on mature basins and declining volumes suggests limited upside for conventional exploration in the region, likely leading to incremental additions rather than transformative discoveries.