Saudi Aramco is prioritizing a massive unconventional gas development program to meet Saudi Arabia's strategic shift away from using crude oil for electricity generation. This transition, central to the Vision 2030 strategy, aims to replace oil—which currently fuels about 40% of power output—with a 50% gas and 50% renewable energy mix by 2030. The objectives are to reduce the national carbon footprint, free up more crude oil for export, and satisfy rising domestic electricity demand, including from data centers.

Ambitious Gas Production Targets

Aramco has revised its 2030 gas production growth target from 60% to 80% above 2021 levels. The company produced about 9.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) of gas in 2021 and aims to reach 16.8 Bcfd by 2030, with production already at 12.6 Bcfd in the third quarter of 2025. This expansion is expected to generate incremental cash flows of $12 billion to $15 billion for Aramco by the end of the decade. The increased gas output could correspond to almost 50% of Aramco's existing crude oil Maximum Sustainable Capacity of 12 million barrels per day by 2030.

The Jafurah Development: A Central Project

The cornerstone of this strategy is the Jafurah unconventional gas development, a phased project valued at over $100 billion and described as the largest shale gas development outside the United States. Jafurah holds an estimated 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. By 2030, it is expected to produce 2 Bcfd of sales gas, 420 million cubic feet per day of ethane, and 630,000 barrels per day of associated liquids. Aramco states this development will be crucial for meeting rising demand from utilities, industries, and the petrochemical sector.

Execution Strategy and Other Key Projects

Analysts note that Aramco is pursuing its ambitious target without announcing significant new gas projects, instead relying on higher utilization from existing fields through increased production at existing wells and improved technology. Key contributors to the incremental gas gains include:

• The Jafurah development.
• The 2.6 Bcfd Tanajib gas processing plant.
• A planned 1.15 Bcfd expansion at the Fadhili gas plant.

Other ongoing projects include the Dorra gas field, developed jointly with Kuwait, which is expected to produce 1 Bcfd of gas and 84,000 bpd of condensate. Aramco is also heavily investing in expanding its nationwide gas processing network, having increased capacity from 2 Bcfd in 2000 to 19.1 Bcfd by the end of 2024, with multiple expansion projects currently underway.

Impact on Oil Exports and Energy Mix

By scaling up domestic gas consumption and renewable energy use, Aramco aims to free up more than 1 million barrels per day of oil for export by 2030. With the company maintaining its maximum sustainable oil capacity at 12 million bpd, this additional volume would be available for export, potentially boosting spare capacity. Volumes of oil used for power generation have already fallen, reaching just under 1 million bpd in 2025, the lowest level since 2019.

Adjustments to Blue Ammonia and LNG Strategy

Aramco has significantly scaled back its long-term targets for blue ammonia production due to commercial considerations, now targeting up to 2.5 million tonnes per annum by 2030, down from a previous goal of 11 million tpa. The company states it will only proceed with additional