Following the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion, Ukraine has resumed attacks on Russian energy export infrastructure, targeting a key oil terminal in the Black Sea and halting a major pipeline transit route to Europe.

Attack on Novorossiysk Oil Terminal

Ukrainian forces attacked the Sheskharis oil export terminal in Novorossiysk's Tsemess bay area. Ukrainian military statements indicate preliminary reports of damage to oil storage depots, while regional authorities confirmed a fire at a fuel terminal following an overnight drone attack. Social media images showed a large fire near the terminal's tanker loading berths. This terminal handles a small share of Kazakh oil exports via a legacy pipeline connector, with the majority of Kazakhstan's exports loaded from a separate Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal nearby. Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry stated the incident did not affect its oil producers' performance.

Context of Energy Infrastructure Attacks

This is not the first attack on the Sheskharis terminal, with a previous assault reported in November; however, past incidents caused only brief operational interruptions. A more significant attack occurred in late November when a Ukrainian drone incapacitated one of the CPC's offshore loading buoys, severely restricting Kazakh oil exports via that route for December and January. The Sheskharis terminal handled significant volumes, with exports around 920,000 barrels per day in December, falling to about 510,000 bpd in January mainly due to weather.

Halting of Druzhba Pipeline Transit

In a parallel move, Ukraine halted the transit of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Slovakia and Hungary, citing heavy damage from Russian attacks. These shipments have not resumed, prompting Hungary and Slovakia to seek urgent alternative supplies.

Alternative Supply Route via Adria Pipeline

Hungary and Slovakia are now considering arranging alternative oil supplies via the Adria Pipeline in Croatia. This pipeline, which runs from an Adriatic coast import terminal, started operations in 1989 but was halted in 1991. Hungary's MOL Group has agreed to start long-term capacity tests with Croatian operator Janaf. While Croatia indicates the pipeline's potential annual capacity is between 11 million and 15 million tonnes, historical shipments to Hungary and Slovakia have never exceeded 2 million tonnes per annum.