The United States has compiled a list of "several more" tankers for potential seizure following the detention of a carrier carrying Venezuelan oil, with the aim of increasing pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. According to six sources, further "direct interventions" are expected in the coming weeks, targeting vessels trading with Venezuela that may also have carried oil from blacklisted nations like Iran. Shipping data indicates at least another 30 sanctioned tankers could be at risk, with over 80 vessels in or near Venezuelan waters, more than 30 of which are under U.S. sanctions.

Recent Seizure and Official Statements

The first seizure of a Venezuelan oil cargo or tanker occurred when the U.S. Coast Guard detained the sanctioned crude carrier Skipper. A White House spokeswoman stated the U.S. will not stand by while sanctioned vessels transport "black market oil," the proceeds of which could fuel activities of rogue regimes. She confirmed the Skipper is expected to sail to the U.S. for the oil to be seized. The U.S. Treasury has since imposed sanctions on six very large crude carriers (VLCCs) that recently loaded crude in Venezuela.

Immediate Impact and Industry Response

The Skipper incident has caused immediate disruptions, with at least one cargo owner halting three tankers carrying nearly 6 million barrels of Venezuela's Merey crude, voyages to Asia cancelled, and tankers waiting off the coast. U.S. forces are monitoring vessels at sea and in some Venezuelan ports. The timing of further seizures reportedly depends on arrangements at U.S. terminals to receive crude.

Market Analysis and Potential Scenarios

Analysts view the Skipper operation as potentially a "one-off enforcement action," possibly followed by a small number of similar cases to reinforce the message. This could cause some owners and charterers to reconsider their exposure, shrinking the pool of available "shadow" tonnage for Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. For the mainstream fleet, this may produce a limited but positive effect as fewer ships take these voyages and some volumes shift back to compliant vessels. A more aggressive enforcement scenario, seen as a tail risk, would involve systematically targeting over 30 sanctioned ships, causing more significant disruption to Venezuelan exports and supporting global crude tanker rates. Longer term, any move reintegrating Venezuelan exports into the mainstream market could shift trade away from the shadow fleet and benefit conventional tanker segments.

Legal and Diplomatic Context

Venezuela has accused the U.S. of piracy. However, a legal specialist notes that as the capture was endorsed by the U.S., it cannot be legally considered piracy, and the term in this context is rhetorical or figurative.