According to a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), US liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments are projected to account for two-thirds of Europe’s LNG imports by 2026, potentially rising to 80% by 2028. The IEEFA warns that this heavy reliance on a single supplier exposes Europe to high gas prices and new forms of supply disruption.

Rising US LNG Dominance

Between 2021 and 2025, Europe’s imports of US LNG more than tripled as countries reduced their dependence on Russian pipeline gas. In the first quarter of 2026, the US supplied 63% of Europe’s LNG imports, up from 57% in the same period a year earlier. The UK imported more US LNG than any other European country, with first-quarter deliveries rising 18% year-on-year. Six European nations—the UK, Germany, Croatia, the Netherlands, Poland, and Greece—sourced over 70% of their LNG imports from the US during this period.

Critique of Europe’s Energy Strategy

IEEFA lead energy analyst Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz stated that Europe’s shift from pipeline gas to LNG was intended to provide security of supply and diversification. However, disruptions from the war in the Middle East and an over-reliance on US LNG have failed on both counts, making LNG the “Achilles’ heel” of Europe’s energy security strategy. The data covers the 27 EU member states, as well as the UK, Norway, and Turkey.

EU Efforts and Infrastructure Expansion

The EU is attempting to reduce gas imports through its AccelerateEU strategy. IEEFA forecasts that Europe’s LNG demand could decrease by about 23% between 2025 and 2030. Despite this, the region continues to build out import infrastructure. While LNG import terminal construction was flat in 2025, IEEFA projects that Europe will install or expand six more facilities in 2026, increasing capacity by 24% by 2030. The body estimates that Europe’s 2030 LNG import capacity could exceed its total gas demand and be three times its LNG demand.

Russia’s Continued Role

Russia remains the second largest LNG supplier to Europe. EU imports of Russian LNG increased by 16% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to a year earlier, with France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Portugal receiving shipments. France had the highest imports. IEEFA reported that EU countries spent €6.7 billion (approximately $7.8 billion) on Russian LNG in 2025, plus an additional €5.9 billion on Russian pipeline gas. The EU is phasing out Russian LNG: a ban on short-term contracts took effect on 25 April, and volumes under long-term deals will be banned from January 2027.