The reported US plan to assume control of Venezuela following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro is projected to significantly reshape regional and global energy dynamics, creating distinct winners and losers.

Primary Beneficiaries: Chevron and Venezuela

Analysts identify US supermajor Chevron as the primary beneficiary. As the sole US company that maintained operations in Venezuela after the 2007 renationalisation, Chevron is well-positioned for expansion due to its valuable fields, existing personnel, and a good relationship with acting President Delcy Rodriguez. Venezuela's own oil economy would also benefit from revived investment, potentially reversing years of production decline from nearly 3 million barrels per day in the early 2000s to recent levels below 900,000 bpd.

Shifts in Crude Oil Trade Flows

A major impact would be the rerouting of Venezuelan crude exports. Currently, most Venezuelan crude is sold at a discount to China, with less than 150,000 bpd going to the US. Under a new regime, Venezuela could resume selling its heavy crude to US Gulf Coast refineries, which were its primary destination before sanctions. This shift would benefit US refiners, as the heavy Venezuelan crude complements light domestic US output. Conversely, it would negatively impact Chinese "teapot" refineries that rely on discounted barrels and could pressure Canadian crude exports in the longer term if Venezuelan supply increases meaningfully.

Regional Implications: Trinidad & Tobago and Guyana

The US intervention could unlock major cross-border natural gas projects for Trinidad & Tobago. Development of fields like Shell's Dragon and Chevron's Loran-Manatee, delayed by US sanctions on Venezuela, could proceed, allowing gas to flow to Trinidad. This potential gain follows Trinidad's support for the US military buildup against Venezuela. Furthermore, US control might dampen Venezuela's territorial claims to the oil-rich Essequibo region in neighbouring Guyana, a dispute that intensified after major oil discoveries offshore Guyana in 2015. Guyana has already bolstered its border security in response to the instability.