Inpex Revises Full-Year 2026 Profit Forecast Upward Amid Elevated Oil Prices

Japanese operator Inpex has revised its full-year 2026 profit forecast upward, citing fluctuations in oil prices and, to a lesser extent, foreign exchange rates. The company now expects profit attributable to owners of the parent company to be between 350 billion and 450 billion yen (US$2.2 billion to US$2.9 billion), an increase of up to 36% from its original forecast. Operating profit for the year is also revised upward to between 1.1 trillion and 1.4 trillion yen, representing a 13.5% to 42.9% increase from the previous figure.

Impact of Middle East Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Situation

Commodity prices have been fluctuating globally due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, with prices expected to remain above US$100 per barrel in the near term. Inpex reported no damage to its onshore and offshore production facilities in the region from the ongoing Middle East conflict, but measures have been taken to continue operations, and production is not at full scale. The company noted that shipments continue from locations outside the Arabian Gulf, without transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Inpex also continues investment to increase crude oil production in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, and reaffirmed Abu Dhabi as a cornerstone of its global business, dismissing media reports of redirecting investments from the Middle East. Inpex holds equity in projects such as the Upper Zakum field and Onshore Block 4.

Ichthys Project Performance and Production Outlook

Another factor in the upward profit revision is sales volumes from the Ichthys project in Australia. Inpex maintained stable operations at the Ichthys field, shipping 32 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in the first quarter. Approximately 10 cargoes per month are planned throughout the year, while connection and commissioning work for the booster compressor module is planned for later in 2026. However, the full-year production outlook for 2026 has been revised downward to 629,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) from the projected 655,000 boepd in the February forecast.

First Quarter Financial Results and Time-Lag Effect

Despite the upward revision for the full year, Inpex’s first quarter profit decreased 13.1% compared to the same period last year. This decline was attributed to a decrease in revenues despite the rise in oil prices in March, due to a time-lag effect. Total revenues for the first quarter of 2026 decreased 6.5% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decrease in crude oil revenues and a 1.8% decrease in natural gas revenues.