According to an analysis by Rystad, the cost of repairing energy infrastructure damaged in the Middle East conflict is estimated to be at least $25 billion, with expectations for this figure to rise further. The extensive damage, resulting from retaliatory strikes and attacks on facilities like refineries, LNG terminals, and gas fields, has caused production shutdowns and declarations of force majeure.

Cost Breakdown and Recovery Challenges

The spending is forecast to be dominated by engineering and construction work, which is expected to account for 49% of total repair costs. Equipment and materials will constitute 39%, with logistics, vessels, and operations making up the remaining 12%. The speed of recovery in the region will depend on execution capacity and the timing of capital deployment. Operators are likely to prioritize restoring existing fields over new developments, increasing demand for regional EPC contractors and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

Major Impacted Facilities

Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG Facility: Identified as a clear outlier, the Ras Laffan Industrial City sustained extensive damage from repeated strikes, specifically damaging Trains 4 and 6. This damage wipes out 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, costing an estimated $20 billion per annum in lost revenue. Full repairs could take up to five years due to supply chain constraints, particularly the procurement of large-frame gas turbines. These specialized turbines are supplied by only three global OEMs, all of which entered 2026 with production backlogs of two to four years.

Iran's South Pars Gas Field: The world's largest gas field was seriously impacted by an attack on its facilities at Asaluyeh. Iran's exclusion from Western supply chains means it will have to rely on Chinese and domestic contractors for repairs, an approach that is technically feasible but could be slower and more expensive.

Other Regional Impacts: Bahrain's Bapco Sitra refinery was identified as another major repair project. Moderate-to-minor disruptions were also catalogued at facilities in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.

Key Determining Factor for Recovery

Across all impacted facilities, the single most consistent factor shaping recovery trajectories is the density and proximity of the domestic Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) ecosystem surrounding each asset. This is noted as an often-underestimated variable in conventional damage assessments.