Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $75 per barrel for the first time since the onset of the Iran war in late February, driven by a significant increase in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing U.S.-Iran peace talks. The global benchmark dropped as much as 3.1% to its lowest level since February 27, as vessels are now transiting the waterway with their satellite signals switched on, reflecting growing confidence among shipowners. The International Maritime Organization has also received safety guarantees that have allowed hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf.

Both Washington and Tehran have signaled early progress in negotiations to end the war, though talks are expected to be protracted and claims from the two sides have diverged. The International Energy Agency estimates that the United Arab Emirates is now exporting oil at nearly 85% of pre-war levels, indicating how much oil has been leaving the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. This has led to a collapse in prices for real-world barrels, with the nearest Brent futures timespread—a key gauge of market supply—flashing weakness, while premiums for barrels from the North Sea to West Africa are tumbling.

Oil prices are down about 40% from their peak during the height of the conflict, as the steady increase in traffic adds to workarounds that were implemented to mitigate disruption through Hormuz. Barrels have begun flowing through the waterway, and the UAE alone has sold around 60 million barrels from inside the Persian Gulf in recent weeks. In a rare symbolic rebuke, the Republican-led Senate voted Tuesday to end the U.S. war with Iran, though the resolution is unlikely to force changes in the administration's strategy, it signals a lack of domestic support for the effort.

Separately, President Donald Trump ordered the Department of Justice to investigate why gasoline prices have not fallen faster as oil drops. The national average retail price has declined 14% since late May and is now below $4 per gallon, though it remains above the five-year seasonal average, according to the American Automobile Association. U.S. retail diesel prices have also fallen below $5 per gallon for the first time since mid-March. However, there are signs of tightness in some markets, including the U.S., where the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude inventories at the key storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by another 1 million barrels last week. If confirmed by official data, stockpiles would have dropped below the 20-million-barrel mark widely seen as the minimum operating level.