US-Iran Ceasefire Ends Amid Escalating Strikes and Oil Market Stability

US President Donald Trump declared on Wednesday that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, established in June, is now terminated. This announcement came just hours after both nations conducted reciprocal strikes, marking a significant escalation in Persian Gulf hostilities. The US Central Command (Centcom) stated that the additional strikes on Wednesday aimed to "degrade further Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping and innocent civilian mariners in the Strait of Hormuz." Approximately 90 Iranian military targets were hit, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along Iran's coastline. Iranian media reported explosions in Bandar Abbas, Abu Musa, Bushehr, and other areas. Kuwait's Defence Ministry confirmed it was intercepting incoming Iranian missiles and drones, while Qatar briefly issued an elevated security alert before lifting it. The previous day, Centcom had struck over 80 targets in Iran, including more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) small boats.

Oil Markets Remain Stable Despite Tensions

Key oil benchmarks remained stable on Thursday morning following the fresh strikes. Brent front-month futures rose marginally by nearly 0.3% to $78.2 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures increased by 0.2% to $73.6 per barrel as of 05:57 GMT. This stability contrasts with Tuesday's events, when the US revoked a general license authorizing the sale of Iranian crude after attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to spike by over 3%. The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) withdrew a June 21 license that had granted Iran a two-month reprieve to sell oil during peace negotiations to end the 2026 war.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic and Market Volatility

Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, noted on Wednesday that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially stopped due to heightened risk perception in the region. He emphasized that even without sustained physical disruption, uncertainty around vessel safety, insurance costs, potential delays, and the risk of further retaliation is likely to keep oil market volatility elevated in the near term. Leon added that traffic through the strait will almost certainly remain reduced until the security situation clarifies and market participants gain visibility on whether a diplomatic off-ramp remains available.

Iranian Response and Threats

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated in a social media post on Thursday that the US "still hasn’t learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free." He warned, "Let me put it plainly: if you strike, you’ll get hit," and cautioned the US not to "flail around pointlessly," or Iran will make it sink even deeper. Ghalibaf concluded, "The Strait of Hormuz will only open with Iranian arrangements, not American threats."