OPEC Output Plunges to 36-Year Low Amid Iran Conflict

OPEC's crude production fell to a 36-year low in April, dropping by 420,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 20.55 million bpd, the lowest since 1990, according to a Bloomberg survey. This decline was driven by deeper losses in Kuwait and Iran, following a massive 8.6 million bpd slump in March when the conflict first shut the Strait of Hormuz. The supply loss in the Persian Gulf, described as the biggest oil-market disruption in history, has boosted prices for jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline, threatening renewed inflation and a global recession. Oil futures remain volatile amid diplomatic efforts, tumbling 7% in London on reports of a potential US-brokered agreement.

Key Production Declines by Country

Kuwait experienced the largest losses, with output dropping by 470,000 bpd to 800,000 bpd—less than a third of pre-conflict levels—and exports dwindling to just 22,000 bpd. Iran's production fell by 180,000 bpd to 3.05 million bpd, doubling its pullback since the war began, as a US blockade redirected 50 vessels since April 13. The survey also includes data for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for its final month before exiting OPEC on May 1, following years of friction with Saudi Arabia over production limits.

OPEC+ Response and Market Context

Despite the closure of Hormuz, several key OPEC and allied nations agreed to proceed with a nominal increase in output quotas for June, continuing the process of restoring halted production on paper. The survey relies on ship-tracking data, official information, and estimates from consultants including Rapidan Energy Group, FGE NexantECA, Kpler, and Rystad Energy.