QatarEnergy is preparing to restart liquefied natural gas production at its Ras Laffan facilities, weeks after operations were halted due to missile attacks from Iran that damaged two of its LNG production units, known as trains.

Production Status and Capacity

The state-owned company, a major global LNG exporter with a nameplate capacity of 77 million tonnes per annum, halted production from the giant North Field last month. It has now restarted two out of three trains at the QatarEnergy LNG North 1 (Qatargas-1) project, which has a combined capacity of 10 million tpa. Plans are underway to begin production from some other trains at the site.

Restart Timeline and Damage Assessment

Analysis indicates that restarting all 12 operable trains at Ras Laffan could take until the end of August if the process began in early May. Restarting just the North site, with a capacity of 41 million tpa, would take just over a month. The longer timeline is attributed to the South site, which sustained damage from the attacks. Two trains at the South site, part of its original 36 million tpa capacity, were damaged and will not return to service for several years, reducing that site's capacity to 24 million tpa. Satellite imagery suggests the two mega-trains at the North site may be able to restart relatively quickly as they still show heat signatures.

Market and Logistical Context

The resumption of Qatar's LNG production is contingent on the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains disrupted. A recent two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is seen as bearish for global gas prices. It may allow 14 laden LNG cargoes currently trapped in the Gulf to exit the strait, providing some market relief. However, analysts note that a fundamental change in supply requires the restart of the 12 operable trains at Ras Laffan, and it is unclear if QatarEnergy would proceed with this during a ceasefire.