The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated to target each other's critical energy infrastructure, marking a strategic shift as military operations on the ground reach a stalemate. This mutual targeting is a response to the stalled Russian offensive in the Donbas region, which has allowed Ukrainian forces to regain some territory.

Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Gas Infrastructure

Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine's natural gas production facilities. Since March 25, strikes have targeted gas fields in the Poltava and Sumy regions of northern and northeastern Ukraine. These attacks have caused significant damage to facilities, resulting in fires and the temporary halt of gas production. At least one employee was killed. The Poltava region is particularly critical, having accounted for about 42% of Ukraine's total gas output prior to the 2022 invasion, with pre-war production at approximately 20 billion cubic meters (Bcm) annually.

Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Oil Terminals

These Russian strikes follow recent Ukrainian drone attacks on key Russian oil export terminals on the Baltic Sea—Primorsk and Ust-Luga. Together, these terminals handle about 40% of Russia's total seaborne oil shipments. Satellite data indicates that fires at large oil tanks in Primorsk and condensate storage tanks in Ust-Luga were still burning. The fire at Ust-Luga was visible from neighboring Finland, where drones believed to be of Ukrainian origin were observed in airspace. As a result of the attacks, oil loadings at both terminals have been halted, and Russian producers have reportedly warned buyers in India and China of potential force majeure on supplies.

Impact on Ukraine's Gas Supply and Imports

Despite increased Russian attacks on its installations, Ukraine's domestic gas production saw a slight increase. However, the country has become significantly more reliant on imports from Europe. Imports surged to almost 6.5 Bcm in 2025 from 720 million cubic meters in 2024. A key import route has been a pipeline connector with Hungary, which supplied close to 3 Bcm. This supply is now under threat, as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has stated he will halt gas deliveries via this link unless Ukraine resumes the transit of Russian oil destined for Hungary, which was stopped in late January following Russian aerial attacks.