Shell's LNG Outlook 2026: Key Projections and Market Dynamics

Shell projects that global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will surge by 65% to nearly 700 million tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2050, positioning LNG as a "stabilising force" in the global energy mix. To meet this demand, approximately 180 million tpa of new LNG supply is forecast to enter the market by 2030, which could enhance the availability and affordability of gas, thereby opening up demand in new markets.

Regional Demand and Infrastructure Needs

Key Asian countries are expected to drive the majority of incremental LNG demand by 2050, with the Middle East and Africa also increasing consumption. Notably, South and Southeast Asia will account for around 40% of global LNG imports by 2050, driven by rapidly growing energy demand with lower emissions than coal. However, Shell emphasizes that the ability to benefit from new supply by 2030 will depend on importing countries' infrastructure, including regasification capacity and pipeline connectivity, particularly in South and Southeast Asia.

Current Supply and Trade Dynamics

The United States remains the world's largest LNG exporter, with gas exports reaching 109 million tpa in 2025, and contributed over 20 million tpa of global LNG capacity addition that year—the largest share of any country. In 2025, a total of 422 million tonnes of LNG was traded, with expectations of significant growth in 2026. However, severe disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has shut in around one-fifth of the world's monthly LNG supply since the conflict began, pushing up spot market prices and adversely impacting demand in several Asian countries. Over 60 million tonnes of LNG supplies in the Middle East alone are likely affected.

Mitigating Factors and Future Outlook

To offset the reduced Middle East supply, Shell notes the ramp-up of new liquefaction facilities in North America, improved performance at existing plants, and slower Asian LNG imports. As a result, total LNG trade in 2026 could remain similar to 2025 if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes by summer, before returning to growth in 2027. Cederic Cremers, president of Shell's integrated gas business, describes the Middle East conflict as a "system-wide shock" but highlights LNG's resilience and adaptability. He stresses that while more investment in supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long-term outlook remains strong, with LNG continuing as a stabilizing force. Shell adds that significant additional investment is required in new LNG liquefaction plants through the 2030s and 2040s, with around 200 million tpa of new supply needed beyond projects already under construction.